More Record-Level Lumber Prices Expected In 2018 From U.S. Import Duties
In WOOD MARKETS’ new five-year softwood lumber forecast, the continuation of U.S. duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. are expected to cause more short-term market and price volatility. The preliminary duties launched earlier in 2017 rocked the U.S. market and more of the same is expected in 2018. As we predicted one year ago, the headline for last year’s WOOD MARKETS 2017 news release was bang on: “U.S. Import Duties on Canadian Lumber to Cause Market Chaos and Soaring Prices.” Indeed, they did. The WOOD MARKETS 2018 Outlook Report predicts more chaos and the chance of further record-breaking prices.
These details and further analysis of commodity lumber and structural panels was released earlier this week in the report, WOOD MARKETS 2018 – The Solid Wood Products Outlook: 2018 to 2022 by WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, Vancouver BC.
The recent announcement of final countervailing (CVD) and anti-dumping (ADD) duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. will cause lumber prices to remain near record levels in 2018 and even higher at various points over the next five years. This is because Canadian exports to the U.S. are forecast to ease in 2018.
“Simply put,” indicated Russ Taylor, Managing Director, WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, “by restricting incremental Canadian lumber exports via import duties, there may not appear to be enough lumber supplies to adequately balance with projected U.S. demand. There will need to major increases in U.S. lumber capacity (which is starting to build), more offshore imports, and/or record-level prices to stimulate more supply. The question that we have seen coming for a number of years is: Where will the U.S. get all of the lumber it needs, and at what price?”
The impact of U.S. import duties on Canadian lumber production and exports has been developed from building a cost curve of Canadian producing regions from WOOD MARKETS’ Global Timber/Sawmill/Lumber Cost Benchmarking Report. From this, WOOD MARKETS has overlaid a cross-Canada timber supply availability map with delivered log and sawmill costs to determine which producing regions (and mills) are most impacted by 20.23% (“all-others”) import duties.
Read more on this from The Working Forest: workingforest.com
Latest News
Valutec TC Kilns See North American Success
As a leading developer and world leader in continuous dry kilns Valutec has delivered more than 2,000 continuous kilns to sawmills around the world. In 2020, the company commissioned North America’s first TC continuous kiln at Pleasant River’s Moose River Lumber in Jackman, Me. Now, another eight kilns are up and running, or being installed in North America…
SmartLam Plans Glulam Facility
SmartLam North America, reportedly the largest manufacturer in North America of cross-laminated timber (CLT), announced it will build a $50 million glulam manufacturing facility in Dothan, Ala. The new SmartLam facility, to be built adjacent SmartLam’s existing CLT facility in a 144,000 sq. ft. structure, will manufacture…
Peak Announce SYP Pellet Mill
Vancouver, Canada-based Peak Renewables plans to build a 180,000 metric tons per year wood pellet mill in Dothan, Ala. The $30 million project will utilize residuals from Rex Lumber sawmills in the area. Construction on the facility is expected to be completed by mid-2023. Peak is building the plant adjacent the SmartLam cross-laminated timber plant and upcoming glulam facility in Dothan…
Find Us On Social
Newsletter
The monthly Timber Processing Industry Newsletter reaches over 4,000 mill owners and supervisors.
Subscribe/Renew
Timber Processing is delivered 10 times per year to subscribers who represent sawmill ownership, management and supervisory personnel and corporate executives. Subscriptions are FREE to qualified individuals.
Advertise
Complete the online form so we can direct you to the appropriate Sales Representative.