More Record-Level Lumber Prices Expected In 2018 From U.S. Import Duties
In WOOD MARKETS’ new five-year softwood lumber forecast, the continuation of U.S. duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. are expected to cause more short-term market and price volatility. The preliminary duties launched earlier in 2017 rocked the U.S. market and more of the same is expected in 2018. As we predicted one year ago, the headline for last year’s WOOD MARKETS 2017 news release was bang on: “U.S. Import Duties on Canadian Lumber to Cause Market Chaos and Soaring Prices.” Indeed, they did. The WOOD MARKETS 2018 Outlook Report predicts more chaos and the chance of further record-breaking prices.
These details and further analysis of commodity lumber and structural panels was released earlier this week in the report, WOOD MARKETS 2018 – The Solid Wood Products Outlook: 2018 to 2022 by WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, Vancouver BC.
The recent announcement of final countervailing (CVD) and anti-dumping (ADD) duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. will cause lumber prices to remain near record levels in 2018 and even higher at various points over the next five years. This is because Canadian exports to the U.S. are forecast to ease in 2018.
“Simply put,” indicated Russ Taylor, Managing Director, WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, “by restricting incremental Canadian lumber exports via import duties, there may not appear to be enough lumber supplies to adequately balance with projected U.S. demand. There will need to major increases in U.S. lumber capacity (which is starting to build), more offshore imports, and/or record-level prices to stimulate more supply. The question that we have seen coming for a number of years is: Where will the U.S. get all of the lumber it needs, and at what price?”
The impact of U.S. import duties on Canadian lumber production and exports has been developed from building a cost curve of Canadian producing regions from WOOD MARKETS’ Global Timber/Sawmill/Lumber Cost Benchmarking Report. From this, WOOD MARKETS has overlaid a cross-Canada timber supply availability map with delivered log and sawmill costs to determine which producing regions (and mills) are most impacted by 20.23% (“all-others”) import duties.
Read more on this from The Working Forest: workingforest.com
Latest News
Hampton Lumber Names Schillinger New CEO
Hampton Lumber has announced that Randy Schillinger will join Hampton Lumber & Family Forests as its new CEO, effective June 26, 2023, taking over for Steve Zika who has served as CEO of Hampton since 2003 and announced his retirement earlier this year. Schillinger has over 25 years of experience in the Pacific Northwest wood products industry. He began his career with…
Housing Starts Increase In April
Housing starts across the U.S. increased in April 2.2% to 1.4 million according the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New Residential Construction report released May 17. Notably, this is 22.3% lower than April 2022’s 1.8 million. Single-family home construction increased 1.6% to its highest level so far in 2023. Starts of apartment…
Timber Processing Combs The Ligna Fair Aisles
The Timber Processing magazine team reports an active first half of the week for sawmill machinery exhibitors at the week-long Ligna international wood processing fair held in Hannover, Germany. Bandmills were not in short supply, including this EWD bandmill system in the middle of Sawmill Hall. Timber Processing magazines were practically flying off the shelf at the Timber Processing…
Find Us On Social
Newsletter
The monthly Timber Processing Industry Newsletter reaches over 4,000 mill owners and supervisors.
Subscribe/Renew
Timber Processing is delivered 10 times per year to subscribers who represent sawmill ownership, management and supervisory personnel and corporate executives. Subscriptions are FREE to qualified individuals.
Advertise
Complete the online form so we can direct you to the appropriate Sales Representative.